Why Vietnam Will Be the Next Nuclear State

Thảo luận trong 'English Discussion' bắt đầu bởi Tony, 14/12/15.

  1. Tony

    Tony Colonel

    y Andrew L. Peek, The Fiscal Times

    June 10, 2014

    Nuclear weapons solve certain problems. They cause a host of other problems, true. For a small state in a high-crime neighborhood, however, nothing guarantees survival like a bomb in the basement. Whether those states are willing to pay the costs of sanctions and ostracism for a bomb depends on their security situation.

    Vietnam’s security is very bad, and the country is all alone.

    Hanoi’s recent maritime spat with China has illustrated its vulnerability. Since early May, when China dropped an oilrig in the Vietnam-claimed area of the South China Sea, 24 Vietnamese ships have reportedly been damaged and one was sunk by Chinese vessels. China also contests Vietnam’s claim to the Spratly Islands to the south, as part of its unilateral “nine-dash” line that claims almost the entire body of water.

    As things stand, Vietnam probably won’t win this argument. All the gauzy phrases of dispute settlement that disguise power politics in Europe and America and Latin America – regional cooperation, consultation, harmonization – wear pretty thin in Asia, where politics are defined by China’s disproportionate power. They’re wearing thin in Europe as well, between Maxine Le Pen and the Ukraine crisis, but they’re cheesecloth in Asia.

    The Pentagon says Beijing spent more than $145 billion on its military last year. A report from the Stockholm International Peace Institute put the number at $188 billion, almost five times that of its nearest East Asian competitor, South Korea, and by far the second-highest total in the world. For China’s neighbors, those are pretty bad figures, and each has chosen a different coping strategy.

    Some, like Myanmar, are already in the tank for Beijing. Some, like Laos, are likely to swing more and more to China’s side. Some, like the Philippines, play the mediator in a bar fight, trying to avoid conflict while staying fundamentally on the American side. And some, like Japan, toe the line.

    Vietnam falls towards the Japanese end of the spectrum. Probably tragically, because it has a few weaknesses that Japan doesn’t. The basic power imbalance, of course, is terrible. Though both China and Vietnam are likely to get richer and stronger over the next decade, China has 14 times the population and 37 times the economy of its neighbor. Unlike Japan, it’s also not an island. China may be developing naval assets at an alarming rate, but it is still fundamentally a land power. Water is generally a much safer barrier than a line on a map.

    Related: Rare Rallies in Vietnam Say ‘Hands Off’ to China Over Sea Row

    The most pressing problem, however, is that Vietnam is in a singular geopolitical situation. It’s a status-quo power and essentially a supporter of the current US-led world order in Asia. Anti-status quo countries like Russia, China, Syria, and Iran are all agitating for larger or smaller changes in the international system – more territory, more prestige, less Israel – but for Vietnam, change can only be bad. Every day that passes means China gets relatively stronger and Vietnam’s security situation gets worse.

    However, unlike other status-quo countries such as South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, or Australia, Vietnam is outside the US security blanket. It’s not part of a NATO, let alone a bilateral defense treaty with America. Relations with the U.S. have improved dramatically over the past twenty years, but strategically, Vietnam is still on its own.

    If it wants to keep confronting China, Hanoi essentially has three choices. First, it could deepen its relationship with the United States and hope to be eventually brought under its nuclear umbrella. This seems unlikely. For one thing, Vietnam is still a communist dictatorship, which the non-governmental organization Freedom House rates as quite definitely not free. While America can certainly be friendly with unfree countries, especially those with oil, there is almost always a limit to cooperation at the high end. And security guarantees are what we would call the “high end.”

    Vietnam could also build a closer security relationship with other status quo states in Asia such as Japan, which seems more than ready. In his speech to Asian leaders in May, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe offered support for Vietnam in its maritime dispute with China. He echoed that in an op-ed last week, and elsewhere, discussions have begun with Australia for tighter military cooperation

    Related: Japan’s Pivot Away from the West Leads Back to China

    However, it’s not clear if Japanese support could balance out China’s overwhelming conventional and nuclear advantages. The Vietnamese did manage to balance out America and France’s overwhelming conventional and nuclear advantages. But China is next door and on the upswing of its power, not fighting on the other side of the world in an uncomfortable enough echo of colonialism. It’s still risky.

    Which brings us to Vietnam’s last option: building the bomb. Acquiring a nuclear capability wouldn’t immediately put Vietnam on the same footing as China, no more than North Korea is with the United States. However, it would guarantee the regime’s survival from external threats, and give Beijing pause when it feels like playing border games.

    There would be costs, of course. Diplomatic snubs, a bout of sanctions, a great deal of more-in-sorrow-than-anger language from Scandinavians at multilateral forums. But Pakistan and India went nuclear and survived. So would Vietnam. A responsible leader, entrusted with his or her country’s safety and planning for the future, would have to at least consider it.

    Tóm tắt:

    * Tình trạng an ninh quốc gia của Việt Nam rất tệ, đất nước này đơn độc.
    - Khi đối đầu với giàn khoan dầu của TQ tháng 5-2014, Việt Nam bị hỏng hóc 24 tàu, chìm 1 chiếc.
    - Các mỹ từ ngoại giao không có giá trị ở châu Á, nơi mà Trung Quốc áp đặt luật chơi.
    - Năm 2014, TQ chi tiêu quân sự khoảng 145-188 tỷ $, đứng thứ 2 thế giới, đứng đầu châu Á, gấp 5 lần nước đứng kế tiếp ở châu Á.
    - Quan hệ TQ với láng giềng có nhiều cấp độ: bị TQ kìm kẹp, như Myanma; đang ngả về TQ như Lào; tránh đối đầu với TQ và dựa hơi nước lớn như Philippines; hoặc đối đầu như Nhật. Việt Nam ở trạng thái như Nhật.
    So với Nhật, VN bất lợi hơn nhiều vì không có thế mạnh nào cả: dân số kém 14 lần, kinh tế kém 37 lần, và tiếp giáp với TQ. VN không được đối thủ lớn của TQ là Mỹ bảo trợ.

    * Để tiếp tục đối phó với TQ, VN có 3 lựa chọn:
    - Đào sâu quan hệ với Mỹ, và hy vọng được bảo trợ bởi ô hạt nhân của Mỹ. Điều này là không thể do khác biệt chính trị.
    - Dựa vào quan hệ và hỗ trợ của châu Á và Nhật, nhưng không thể cân bằng được sức mạnh vượt trội về vũ khí thông thường và hạt nhân của TQ.
    Sax thích bài này.
  2. Novation

    Novation Someone you used to know

    I think we should considering the fact that Vietnam was a Nuclear State from 1990s decades.
    Some rumours said that when Russia left Cam Ranh Bay, they was not only left few equipments and weapons like 4 sukhoi 27 UBK - 2 seat version of Su 27 SKK used for not only training but combat - aslo somethings which they didn't know how to do with them like 1 squadron of Attack Helicopter Mi 24 and few Secret weapons - which had been transfer to Cam Ranh in Sino - China war 1989 by Millitary Support Treatment between USSR and Viet Nam.
    Have a thousand ideals about that Secret Weapon but if looking in the fact that China is a Nuclear State and Viet Nam have some Scud-D from 80s decades ( Medium Range Ballictics Missiles can carry Nuclear Warhead) there is not far to have the ideal that Viet Nam may be have few Nuclear Warheads and the perfect Missile for those deadly weapons.
    Last edited: 23/12/15
    Sax thích bài này.
  3. lifecare

    lifecare Active Member

    Some nuclear wepon units made has'n any gram on miritary meaning, but it make big problem on policy & diplomatic, especialy on economic. Vietnam always refuse NW. When USSR use Camranh bay, Le Duan asked the pre-requires is no nuclear weapon.
  4. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    When we can unify the sub Mekong region to get bigger and stronger, then no one can stop VN acquiring Nuke warhead.

    So, first step, we must unify sub Mekong region. We dont need to occupy their nations, but we must control their militaries as the way USA use to treat wt their allies.
  5. Novation

    Novation Someone you used to know

    I really dont agree that own some Nuclear Weapons is a good news in any level of seriously what we are having.
    And @lifecare : We all know that Le Duan is not really honest men, he always try to hide some part of the story, but that genius always prepaired for the worst versions of future example the Renovation in 80s decades had been prepaired by his invisible hand from 70s decades in 2nd Viet Nam War.
    So i dont think that he did not prepair something for in scenario that China invasion Viet Nam, which had been predicted by Viet Nam Central Comunist Party from 1972's Meeting after the fall of trust between Ha Noi and Bejjing in USSR - China - Viet Nam relationship which direct to USSR - Viet Nam Military Ally Pact and the Sino - Cambodia Millitary Aid.
    In other part of story, i dont think Nuclear war is the thing we can looking for because Nuclear War have no room for living human.
    lifecare thích bài này.

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