China & Far East

Thảo luận trong 'English Discussion' bắt đầu bởi Sax, 27/7/15.

  1. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    Nếu đc thì Mod cho lập cái Thớt bằng tiếng Anh ở đây, để tăng sức tuyên truyền HSO tới Tg nhe :D

    Bài đầu tiên là về việc CK TQ hnay lại tụt thê thảm.

    CN dog is dying, :D
  2. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    TPP is coming closer, CN stock investors can feel the heat, thats why they r trying to sell as fast as possible :)
  3. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    When discussing on international forum, try to avoid talking wt those azzhole 50 cents, they will keep trolling u until u get ban by apro-CN mod
  4. Tony

    Tony Colonel

    China will collapse soon, in 25 years, I guess.
    Vietnam should prepare for that moment to get back our lands stolen by China.
    Sax thích bài này.
  5. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    Shjjt, ppl( people) can't see the thread when they r not HSO member??? Pls mod, can u move it to East sea news section??

    I want some foreigners can see it, too.
  6. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    China eyes new cruise link to disputed South China Sea islands | Asia Times

    Chinese authorities plan to start a second cruise ship link to the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea, state media reported on Monday, in a move that may irk Vietnam, which also claims the islets.

    China began cruises on the Coconut Princess on a trial basis from the southern island province of Hainan in 2013. More than 10,000 tourists have taken the trip so far, the official China Daily reported.

    Officials hope a second ship will be in operation before the end of the year, and that more islands can be opened up for visits, the report said.

    Those include Woody Island, where the Chinese government seat for administering the Paracels is located.

    However, weather and poor facilities could hamper tourism efforts. The Paracels are often hit by typhoons and strong winds, the paper said.

    “We need to take into account the capacity of the islets to handle tourists. Cruise ships cannot dock on some of them and the tourists have to be bought ashore by smaller ships,” Xie Zanliang, head of a government tourism company promoting trips to the Paracels, told the newspaper.

    The deployment of a Chinese oil rig near the Paracels last year sparked a standoff with Vietnam and anti-Chinese riots.

    China claims 90 percent of the potentially energy-rich South China Sea. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam lay claim to parts of the sea, through which passes about $5 trillion of trade a year.

    Vietnam said last month it would offer its own cruises to the disputed Spratly archipelago, which lies south of the Paracels, a move that sparked anger from China.

    Countries competing to cement their rival claims have encouraged a growing civilian presence on disputed islands.
  7. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    Those CN azzhole never stop making trouble to VN in our East sea :mad:
  8. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    Anti-China sentiment is sweeping over Turkey
    BARBARA TASCH JUL 22 2015, 2:10 AM 123
    [​IMG]Demonstrators set fire to a Chinese flag during a protest against China near the Chinese Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, July 5, 2015.
    Protests. Burnt flags. Attacks on tourists and restaurants. Rampant racism on social media.

    Anti-China sentiment has been reaching new heights in Turkey over the last few weeks, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to make an official state visit to China later this month.

    It started at the beginning of July, when a Chinese restaurant in Istanbul was attacked by five men with sticks and stones.

    “We do not want a Chinese restaurant here, get out of our town!” the men were heard saying, according to Al-Monitor.

    A few days later, a Korean tourist mistaken to be Chinese was attacked by a group of ultra-nationalists in the capital. On the same day in Balikesir, protesters hung an effigy of Mao Zedong. And a few days later, the protests spread again to Istanbul, where Chinese tourists were attacked and harassed, according to CNN.

    The protests gathered momentum a few weeks ago, when reports emerged that Uighurs — who share ethnicity and have close cultural ties with Turkish Muslims — who were living in western regions of China had allegedly not been allowed to fast during the holy month of Ramadan. Those allegations have been denied by the Chinese government. Uighurs make up around 45% of the Xinjiang autonomous region of China.

    On July 9, a group of about 200 men who are believed to be part of the East Turkestan Solidarity Group attacked the Thai embassy in Istanbul with rocks and wooden planks. The attack followed the repatriation of over 100 Uighurs back to China by the Thai government.

    In a recent interview, Devlety Bahceli, chairman of the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP) in Turkey, whose members have been accused of assaulting tourists, said they are “sensitive to injustices in China.”

    “Our nationalist youth is sensitive to injustices in China. They should have the freedom to exercise their democratic rights. These are young kids. They may have been provoked. Plus, how are you going to differentiate between Korean and Chinese? They both have slanted eyes. Does it really matter?” he said, according to Al-Monitor.

    [​IMG]Boys wave East Turkestan flags during a protest against China near the Chinese Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, July 5, 2015.
    Those racist comments caused uproar in national and international media. And following growing social pressure, Nationalist Action Party members told Al-Monitor that they view all tourists as their guests. The head of the Grey Wolves, the youth wing of the MHP in Istanbul, told the BBC that the attacks took place between protesters and the police — and that no tourists were harmed.

    “The safety of every tourist coming to our country is our responsibility. We can’t tolerate any sort of violence,” he said.

    Amid the multiplying attacks, the Chinese embassy issued a travel warning to its citizens and told them to avoid going out alone, getting close to protests, or taking pictures of them. The Chinese Philharmonic Orchestra also canceled its August concert in Istanbul, and local police announced it would provide extra security for an exhibition by a Chinese artist.

    Cihan Yavuz, the owner of Happy China, the restaurant that was attacked in early July, says the attack was “baseless.” Yavuz is Turkish and employs an Uighur cook. He had invested his life savings in the restaurant that now has to close down.

    “If people want to protest the Chinese government, they can hold demonstrations in front of its embassy. It’s not right to use violence for the sake of protesting,” he told the BBC.
    Thuyền chài 01 thích bài này.
  9. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    There r more and more countries in the world hate CN now
  10. Novation

    Novation Someone you used to know

    I hope you care about your language before send a new post, it is too offfensive to other people. We all know you dont like China Foreign Policy but it is not that mean you have power to use that offensive langguage.
    Last edited: 28/7/15
  11. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    This is what 50cent CNese often use to talk to VN, they deserve to be beaten in another riots

    Last edited: 28/7/15
  12. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    My words r offfensive ?? in or in HSO ?? ppl usually call CNese as cẩu, khựa...etc.. in HSO, thats even worse azzhole, right.

    btw: pls let's us screw CN here some time, mod...or can I use Khựa instead of azzhole?? :D
    Last edited: 28/7/15
  13. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    Anti China in Malaysia...(Tâm lý bài TQ ở Mã)

    The Low Yat Plaza riot which injured five people was scary with its disturbing racial overtones, and we don’t do Malaysia any favours by pretending that the whole incident had nothing to do with racism.

    The original incident seemed simple enough. A Malay man allegedly stole a smartphone from a Chinese trader at a shop in Low Yat Saturday.

    He was caught and handed over to the police. Then the upset man brought a group of friends over who allegedly assaulted the workers from the mobile phone outlet and damaged the store, causing about RM70,000 in losses.

    The story then took a strange racist twist, with rumours suddenly popping up on social media about how the “cheating” Chinese had tried to sell a counterfeit phone to the Malay man. The police, by the way, have reportedly dismissed claims about the counterfeit phone.

    A riot broke out at Low Yat the following day, with disturbing videos of the violent Malay mob attacking a car with passengers cowering inside, as well as three journalists from the Chinese press.

    The shoplifting was not unusual and had nothing to do with race, certainly. But the subsequent fallout was motivated by racism, with all the belligerent calls on social media to #BoikotCinaPenipu and to boycott Low Yat.

    There were hostile calls for Malay unity and vague threats of assault, with a photo of a gunman and the words “Call of Duty Low Yat” on Facebook.

    There were even calls for arson. Malays were painted as victims, oppressed by the Chinese.

    At the mob gathering on Sunday night, a Malay man is seen in a video making a racist speech about how Malaysia is “bumi Melayu” and how the Chinese humiliated the Malays.

    Police, politicians and the public have been quick to say that the Low Yat incident was not about racism, but just a simple case of theft.

    Wake up and smell the coffee — the Low Yat riot was racially motivated and it shows how ugly things can get when the economy is bad.

    For all our campaigns about “moderation”, the truth is, racism exists in this country and we can’t ignore it.

    People look for scapegoats when the economy is in the doldrums. The Jews were made a scapegoat for Germany’s economic problems after World War I.

    It’s far easier to blame a person from another ethnic group living near you, who’s sitting in the same LRT and eating at the same fast food restaurant in which most of the counter staff appear to be Malays, for robbing you of opportunities in life.

    It’s easier to get angry at news of someone from another race ripping off your fellow brethren over something tangible like a phone, than at the purportedly missing billions in the 1Malaysia Development Berhad scandal.

    After all, you don’t know exactly how many of those billions come from your taxes. And you don’t see physical cash from your taxes being diverted into someone’s personal bank account.

    It’s easier to hit a fellow Malaysian of a different skin colour over perceived injustices, compared to trying to slap the prime minister who’s protected by bodyguards and whom you only see in the news, not on the streets.

    The government too should be blamed for allowing, and even encouraging, circumstances for a riot to happen.

    The race-baiting in Utusan Malaysia, the refrain for Malay unity, and Friday sermons that repeatedly label minority groups as “the enemy” have all contributed to this powder keg of racial tension.

    A minister who brazenly called for Chinese traders to be boycotted should have been sacked.

    But instead, he remains in government.

    The ethnic conflict between the Malays and Chinese is driven by the perception that the Chinese are significantly wealthier. It’s unclear how much of that is really true.

    A Khazanah Research Institute study shows that 26 per cent of Bumiputera households earn less than RM2,000 per month, compared to 20 per cent and 14 per cent of Indian and Chinese households respectively. So it’s arguable if the Chinese really do dominate the economy.

    Racism is not just caused by politicians who use the race card to get support.

    There are things that don’t make it in the news – the wariness of the Malays at eating or drinking at Chinese coffee shops, the unnatural fear of pork to the extent of shunning Chinese ice-cream sellers, the undercurrent of complaints against the Chinese for stealing the country’s wealth and for trampling on the rights of the Malays.

    There’s breeding resentment on both sides.

    The Chinese complain about not getting equal treatment and having to work twice as hard to get the same opportunities as the Malays, who receive coveted positions at public universities, housing discounts etc. They look down on the Malays and perceive them as “lazy”.

    When a Malay is hardworking and does make it to the top, they say she’s an exception, not the rule.

    This makes for uncomfortable reading. But we need to confront racism head on.

    We need to acknowledge that we hold racial stereotypes and that such stereotypes comfort us. They make us feel good about ourselves. They make us feel superior.

    We can laugh at racist jokes but we secretly place our colleagues, acquaintances, civil servants, and traders into racial stereotypes that they happen to fit in.

    I myself am guilty of doing it. I compare the Chinese and Malay nasi lemak sellers at the wet market that I regularly go to.

    The Chinese nasi lemak seller is fast and efficient, but she’s very careful with her portions, always measuring them so she doesn’t give too much.

    The Malay trader’s nasi lemak is tastier and he lets customers dole out their own portions, charging a far cheaper price too. But he arrives at a later time than the Chinese, which means fewer customers, and he’s slow.

    So I secretly think that the Chinese is a better businesswoman, even though I prefer buying from the Malay nasi lemak seller (when he arrives early enough).

    And I allow myself to take comfort in the (dangerous) belief that yes, the Malays may get everything handed to them on a silver platter, but we Chinese can still beat them because we’re better, smarter and faster than them.

    I feel uncomfortable admitting this in writing. But I must, just like all of us must similarly admit the racial stereotypes we hold if we want Malaysia to move forward. We will never eradicate racism by burying our heads in the sand and pretending that it doesn’t exist.

    We need to perhaps befriend more people of other races. Maybe even get into interracial relationships and have babies of mixed ethnicity.

    Then maybe, just maybe, Malaysia will be a little less racist.

    - See more at: Low Yat was about racism, deal with it | Boo Su-Lyn | Opinion | Malay Mail
  14. Tony

    Tony Colonel

    The racism against Chinese and China is now very popular, not only in its neighboring, but anywhere on earth.
    Sax thích bài này.
  15. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    Update economic news.

    CN economy down and has to reduce oil import, it makes oil price goes down, too....and it means Russia economy that depend so much on oil export also get worse .
  16. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    Chinese shares suffer their biggest one-day percentage drop in more than eight years


    LINGLING WEI in Beijing and

    CHAO DENG in Hong Kong
    Updated July 28, 2015 2:47 p.m. ET
    The Chinese government is struggling to contain the collapse of a stock-market rally it helped engineer, announcing late Monday that it will step up its purchases of shares to prop up sagging indexes.

    Chinese shares suffered their biggest one-day percentage drop in over eight years Monday, wiping out hundreds of billions of dollars of market value and putting an end to a three-week period of stability Beijing had achieved by intervening with stock purchases and other steps to stop the market’s slide.

    The Shanghai Composite Index, which includes China’s biggest companies, fell 8.5%, to 3725.56, with the losses coming mostly during a hectic last two hours of trading on Monday. More than two-thirds of the 1,114 companies in the index fell by the 10% daily maximum allowed under market rules. The smaller Shenzhen Composite Index fell 7%, to 2160.09, bringing its losses to 31% since it hit a record in mid-June. Tuesday morning, in early trading, Shanghai shares fell 4.2% and Shenzhen shares fell 4.3%.


    The big declines show investors have become skeptical of the market and the government’s ability to control its slide. China’s top leaders, currently gathering for their annual summer talks at the northern seaside town of Beidaihe, will likely look at what further action they can take to bring stability back to the stock market and how to prevent the rout from spreading to other parts of the economy.

    This week the Shanghai Composite erased most of the gains made since authorities in Beijing intervened in stock markets in early July. What changed to spark the selloff? Photo: Getty


    “The cat is out of the bag when it comes to China, and the collapse in the stock market overnight has confirmed that Beijing’s stabilization policies are not working,” said David Madden, market analyst at brokerage IG. “I feel that confidence will be difficult to get back, no matter how much money they throw at it.”

    For now, the problem is largely a domestic one for China. Shares in Asia, Europe and the U.S. also pulled back, but the relatively limited exposure among international investors to Chinese stocks kept the panic from spreading.

    Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.9%, the Stoxx Europe 600 closed down 2.2%, its biggest one-day percentage decline in a month, while the S&P 500 slumped 0.6%. Commodities, including crude oil and copper, dropped amid fears about waning demand from China. In early trading Tuesday, Japan shares were down 1%, and Hong Kong shares were down 0.8%.

    A spokesman for China’s top securities regulator said late Monday night that thegovernment will increase its buying of stocks in a bid to stabilize the market. The comments appeared to be aimed at speculation the government could soon pull back on its support for the market, speculation that had contributed to the day’s big losses.

    China’s Market in 8 Charts

    Zhang Xiaojun, spokesman at the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said the government’s stock-buying entity didn’t exit the market and will increase its holdings of stock as appropriate. He also said the regulator isn’t ruling out the possibility that big individual investors were coordinating to dump shares in a “malicious” fashion that contributed to Monday’s plunge.

    Further intervention by the government could raise more concerns about Beijing’s resolve to open up its financial system to greater competition and cross-border capital flows, a stated government goal as the leadership seeks to turn the Chinese yuan into an international currency. Current and retired Communist Party officials are expected to discuss the next course of action for overhauls at the conclave in Beidaihe, according to government advisers.

    Despite slowing economic growth, China’s stock market soared in the first half of the year—the Shanghai Composite had climbed 60% this year through mid-June—fanned by policy changes that made it easier to buy shares with borrowed money and upbeat editorials in state-run media. Many of the buyers have been individual investors, who account for about 80% of the transactions in China’s stock market, a far greater share than in developed markets.

    Beijing has hoped that the country’s stock market would become a reliable venue for companies to raise capital, reducing their dependence on funding from state-owned banks. More recently, though, fears of a collapse in investor confidence have come to the fore.

    “As Wen Jiabao once put it, ‘Confidence is more important than gold,’ ” one government adviser said, referring to a former Chinese premier. “That’s the state of mind for the current leadership as well.”

    The stock rally this year had been one of the few bright spots in China’s economy. The intervention to rescue the market suggests leaders are concerned not only that the disorderly selling could spread to other parts of the financial system, but that it could signal a wider loss of faith in the government’s ability to manage the economy.

    Some economists question the wisdom of the all-out effort to protect stocks, saying that risks of significant damage to China’s broader economy are small. One reason, they said, is that much of Chinese household wealth sits in banks and is tied up in real estate, with only a small portion invested in stocks.

    The market-rescue measures could mean more harm down the road, they said, by reinforcing the idea that the government will come to the rescue whenever there is a crisis, undermining the progress China has made in allowing more room for risk in its financial system.

    Since early July, the Chinese government has resorted to measures aimed at stemming the slide in stocks that had wiped out roughly $3 trillion in market value in just three weeks beginning in mid-June. The steps, including a stock-purchasing program financed by the country’s central bank and commercial banks and a halt to new stock listings, helped restore some calm in the following weeks.

    Monday’s plunge all but wiped out the market’s gains since the recent market trough on July 8. The Shanghai Composite is down 28% since hitting a more than seven-year high on June 12. Among stocks falling by the 10% daily limit Monday were those of major state-owned companies such as oil firm China Petroleum & ChemicalCorp., insurer China Life Insurance Co. and Bank of Communications Co., one of China’s top banks. Still, the Shanghai Composite is up 15% this year, while the Shenzhen Composite has gained 53%.

    There was little sign of market panic early Monday. Stocks initially rose before finishing the morning session at 11:30 a.m. down slightly from Friday’s closing level. When trading reopened at 1 p.m. after the normal daily break, they traded within a narrow range until 1:49 p.m., when the steep slide began.

    Investors look at stock information at a brokerage house in Qingdao, Shandong province, on Monday. China stocks plunged 8.5%, their biggest one-day percentage drop in more than eight years. PHOTO: REUTERS


    Dai Yiyun, a 28-year-old office secretary at a state-owned company in Shanghai, saw her stockholdings shrink in value within the half-day of volatile trading. At 2 p.m., four of the 10 stocks in her portfolio had gained during the day. By 2:15 p.m., all of them had fallen by the 10% maximum.

    “I never expected the market to turn 180 degrees around early afternoon,” said Ms. Dai, who lost 10,000 yuan ($1,611) on Monday. “I’ve lost hope that I can make money in this crazy market…Logic simply doesn’t exist in China’s stock market.”

    Beijing helped bolster the market about a year ago by easing credit conditions, which in turn encouraged investors to buy shares with borrowed funds, known as margin trading. More access was granted to foreign investors via a trading link to the Hong Kong market. Chinese stocks more than doubled in value in a year.

    But China’s stock-investing public rushed for the exits starting in mid-June, when the government intensified a clampdown on margin trading.

    Outstanding margin loans were at 1.5 trillion yuan Friday, down from a record of 2.3 trillion on June 18, according to the latest available information from data provider Wind Information Co. Analysts said unofficial lenders, such as peer-to-peer Internet financing sites, have lent hundreds of billions of yuan more to investors.

    In recent weeks, China’s securities watchdog has been cracking down on such lightly regulated credit providers. In a statement after the market closed Monday, China’s securities regulator said it had sent enforcement teams to two companies that run stock-trading platforms to check if they are following its rules.

    Analysts said Beijing still has firepower to support the market. China’s central bank, which has already been indirectly injecting funds to help securities firms buy shares, could further increase funding.

    Chinese authorities could also delay unwinding the existing rescue measures for as long as needed, by potentially prolonging the suspension of new stock sales and continuing to mandate that anyone holding 5% of a company can’t sell shares for six months. Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry could pitch in by lowering the stamp duty on stock sales, Chinese officials said.

    “The [government’s] hope is to get the stock market back up long enough for economic growth to catch up, which would then enable it to carry out its pledged structural reforms to make the growth more sustainable,” said economist Zhu Chaoping at UOB Kay Hian Holdings Ltd., a Singapore-based brokerage.

    Others found the apparent lack of government intervention Monday telling.

    The authorities may want to “test whether the market has recovered its resilience,” said Fu Xuejun, a strategist at Huarong Securities. “The government wants to use state funds to stabilize the market, not to prop it back to 5,000 points overnight.”

    —Yifan Xie
    and Gregor Stuart Hunter
    contributed to this article.

    China Stocks Tumble 8.5%, Calling Into Question Beijing’s Market-Rescue Effort - WSJ
  17. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    CN economy is getting worse as TPP talk in Hawai start today for the last stage negotiation :)
    (KT TQ ngày càng tồi tệ hơn)
  18. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    China’s More Worried About Own People, Says GOP Hawk
    (TQ lo lắng việc nội loạn hơn )


    WASHINGTON: Randy Forbes pretty much looks like a hawk. The House seapower subcommittee chairman has fought for a bigger battle fleet with long-range drone bombers, called for China to be kicked out of the international RIMPAC wargames and blasted the Obama administration for its lack of a tough Pacific strategy.

    But does that mean China must be opposed at every turn? Is China our enemy? Forbes made it clear today that he doesn’t see China as an adversary, just a competitor — and the competition isn’t zero-sum. In political circles whereXi Jinping sometimes gets compared to Hitler, that’s a big distinction with big implications for how you do strategy.

    “We always think there’s…. somebody in the Chinese government that’s plotting how to overthrow the United States,” Forbes said today at the American Enterprise Institute. “That’s not happening, because what they get up every day and worry about is… ‘how do I keep things from imploding at home?'”

    China has huge internal problems, from jobs to pollution to the banking system, Forbes said. Nationalist saber-ratting over the Senkaku Islands, Taiwan, or the South China Sea is a useful distraction from domestic discontents, he said, but it’s not the primary focus of Chinese policymakers.

    What’s more, Forbes said, China has a limited “window” of economic ascendancy before domestic problems catch up with it — and Chinese leaders know that. It was “actually a little surprising to us,” Forbes said, but the consensus of expert testimony before Congress has been that there’s “not an infinity of the kind of growth we’ve been seeing.” Instead, China will slow down, if not hit the wall, in about 10 years.

    So part of China’s current aggressive policy may be gathering rosebuds — or “islands” — while ye may, before the Pacific balance of power shifts against Beijing. Chinese leaders also see what Forbes considers the tempting weakness of the Obama administration worldwide and the successful example of Putin’s aggression in Crimea.

    This combination of time pressure and opportunity leads the Chinese to push on multiple fronts. They purposefully escalate tensions and then step back — but when the crisis ebbs, their position is always a little stronger than before. It’s “just like a check valve on a pump,” Forbes said. “They overplay their hand sometimes but they have a strategy.”

    “That doesn’t mean they’re adversaries. It just simply means that they’re competitors,” Forbes said. We want to win, of course, he went on, but “winning is not a zero-sum game. Winning is not where China loses and we win. Winning is when both of them do well.”

    Indeed, in the decades that American power has underwritten peace, order, and trade in the Pacific, Forbes said, “the No. 1 winner has been China.”

    Now we just have to convince the Chinese of that.

    China’s More Worried About Own People, Says GOP Hawk « Breaking Defense - Defense industry news, analysis and commentary
    Last edited: 30/7/15
  19. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    USA also believe that stupidity will lead CN economy to collapse in abt 10 years like what I predict :)
  20. Sax

    Sax Well-Known Member

    Winners and Losers in the World's Biggest Trade Deal: TPP
    (Kẻ thành công và kẻ thất bại trong TPP)

    The countdown to the giant Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has begun, with a July 31 deadline looming on the trade agreement that covers 12 countries and 40 per cent of the global economy.

    Trade representatives kicked off talks in Hawaii on Tuesday and will work towards a-hopefully-successful conclusion at the end of this week. The deal has been five years in the making but contrary to previous talks, optimism is high for an agreement this time around.

    "Sentiment is very positive. I've spoken to negotiators from the US and four other countries and people are excited, they really see the end in sight," Tami Overby, senior vice-president for Asia at the US Chamber of Commerce (USCC), told CNBC on Tuesday.

    CNBC takes a look at the likely TPP winners and losers:


    "The biggest winner will be Vietnam as foreign investors start to flood the country. Number two might be Malaysia and number three is Japan," Deborah Elms, executive director at Asia Trade Centre, told CNBC on Tuesday.

    The Peterson Institute of International Economics (PIIE) echoed Elms in a recent report, citing tariff-free access to US markets for apparel and footwear, Vietnam's top exports, compared to the current 17-32 per cent tax range.

    That's expected to boost exports to the U.S-already Vietnam's largest export market-and dramatically increase foreign direct investment inflows in a country with the lowest per capita income among TPP members.

    PIIE also notes that Vietnam would see the largest percentage income gains and export increases out of all countries at 13.6 per cent and 31.7 per cent, respectively.

    Malaysia does not yet have bilateral free-trade agreements (FTAs) in place with the US, Canada or Mexico, so it should be another key beneficiary of a TPP agreement.

    "The TPP deal would provide Malaysian exporters with enhanced access to the entire North American market, and would also improve Malaysia's attractiveness as a hub for North American investment inflows," Rajiv Biswas, Asia Pacific chief economist at IHS, said in Tuesday note.

    For Japan, the opening of services markets is a major advantage, explained Elms of Asia Trade Centre. A TPP deal would open the services markets of each member nation to one another, and because Japan's services sector is relatively uncompetitive, it has a lot of room to grow, she said.

    "That means all kinds of services markets that have been problematic for foreign investors to penetrate should be open, including logistics, distribution and warehousing, as well as travel, tourism, and food and beverage."

    Moreover, the combined impact of the TPP and a potential FTA with the European Union could substantially lift Japan's long-term growth rate, according to Biswas.


    Non-TPP members are expected to bear the brunt of losses due to the impact of trade diversion, where countries prefer to export to their FTA partners rather than non-participating countries.

    "The trade diversion effect of the TPP fall mainly on China," PIEE said, adding that exports would be 1.2 per cent lower in the case of a deal compared to without.

    As Vietnam benefits from increased market access to the US, other Asian exporters of textiles and clothing may hurt.

    "Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are also expected to suffer negative impact effects from trade and investment diversion in the textiles and clothing industry towards TPP members, notably Vietnam," Biswas added.

    India is also expected to suffer as Vietnam gains. "While New Delhi has a relatively well-diversified export sector, textiles and clothing industry still accounted for 13 per cent of total merchandise exports in the 2014-15 financial year," Biswas continued.

    However, the European Union isn't expected to be impacted greatly: It already boasts a number of FTAs with Asian economies and is currently negotiating one with the United States, PIIE said. Why it's now or never

    Previous TPP talks have been repeatedly stalled by sticky issues including generic drugs, agricultural subsidies and dairy exports, but experts say it's now or never for negotiators.

    "This deadline is truly a real deadline [compared to previous ones] because the window is essentially shut," Elms said. "If no agreement is signed by this weekend, countries will have to wait until after the next US presidential election in 2017. By then, who knows what will have happened? I would not like the odds of success then. It's make-or-break now."

    However, there's always the possibility of negotiators inking an in-principle deal and then working out the details later, Overby added.

    Indeed, recent history indicates that there's nothing like the threat of the 11th hour to motivate politicians.

    It took Greece and its European creditors six months to finally agree on a bailout deal, which coincided with the peak of Athens' financial desperation amid capital controls and a missed International Monetary Fund payment.

    Meanwhile, Tehran and the group known as the PS5+1 went back-and-forth for 18 months before finally joining hands earlier this month.

    - See more at: TPP: Winners and losers in the world's biggest trade deal, News, News, AsiaOne Business News
    Tony thích bài này.

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